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Delphi Method

Decision ModelsDecision making

Reference model

Delphi Method ProcessA cycle of 6 steps that repeats: 1, Identify the problem; 2, Select experts; 3, Conduct rounds of surveys; 4, Analyze feedback; 5, Refine questions; 6, Reach consensus; after the last step the cycle returns to the first.Identify the problemClearly define the issue tobe addressed.1Select expertsChoose a diverse panel ofknowledgeable ind…2Conduct rounds ofsurveysGather initial opinionsanonymously.3Analyze feedbackSummarize responses andidentify areas of a…4Refine questionsAdjust questions based onfeedback for the…5Reach consensusContinue until a stableagreement is achiev…6

The Delphi Method moves a panel from scattered individual views toward a documented group position.

About this model

A structured communication technique in which a facilitator collects judgments from a panel of experts anonymously over several rounds. After each round the facilitator shares a summary of the group's answers and reasons, and experts may revise their views. The process stops when answers stabilise or a pre-set stopping rule is met.

Originator not stated.

How to read it

  • Read the cycle clockwise: define the question, pick the panel, collect answers, summarise, refine and repeat.
  • In the round table, a shrinking spread between low and high answers signals convergence.
  • Check the final agreement against the stopping rule you set before round one, and read the dissent notes.

What this does

Helps a team reach a defensible decision by collecting expert judgments through several anonymous rounds, feeding back the group's results each time, until opinions converge or the remaining disagreement is clear.

When to use it

Use it for complex or uncertain decisions that need expert judgment, when the experts are dispersed, or when open discussion would be distorted by seniority or strong personalities.

Not when: Do not use it when the answer can be found in data, when the decision is simple or urgent, or when you cannot get a credible panel to stay engaged through several rounds.

What happens next

Test the agreed position with a risk review or pilot before committing, for example a SWOT analysis of the chosen option, then assign owners in the action plan.

Golden thread

Builds on ←

  • Problem statement
  • Expert identification
  • Stakeholder analysis

Feeds into →

  • Final decision report
  • SWOT analysis
  • Action plan

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Drafted with AI and reviewed by Eccellere on 04/11/2026. Guidance, not advice: apply your own judgement.