Skip to content
Skip to the tool
  1. 1Stage 1
  2. 2Stage 2
  3. 3Stage 3
← All tools

Scenario Planning (Shell-style)

L1StrategyEnvironmentdiagnosticStages 3 to 6

Reference model

Scenario planning with two critical uncertaintiesA two-by-two grid. The horizontal axis is the first critical uncertainty and the vertical axis the second; the four corners (top left, top right, bottom left, bottom right) are four distinct, plausible futures. Beneath it, five steps: focal question, driving forces, critical uncertainties, four scenarios, signposts.Top leftA named, coherent future:Left end of axis 1 · top end of axis 2Name · story · how we respondTop rightA named, coherent future:Right end of axis 1 · top end of axis 2Name · story · how we respondBottom leftA named, coherent future:Left end of axis 1 · bottom end of axis 2Name · story · how we respondBottom rightA named, coherent future:Right end of axis 1 · bottom end of axis 2Name · story · how we respondCRITICAL UNCERTAINTY 1left endright endCRITICAL UNCERTAINTY 2topbottom1 Focal question2 Driving forces3 Critical uncertainties4 Four scenarios5 Signposts

The two critical uncertainties form the axes; each corner is a different, internally consistent future.

About this model

Instead of one forecast, builds a few distinct, plausible futures around the two uncertainties that matter most and are least predictable — so the strategy holds up across more than one version of what happens next.

Pierre Wack at Royal Dutch Shell (1970s), developed by Peter Schwartz — The Art of the Long View · 1970s–1991

How to read it

  • Start from one focal question, list the forces that will shape the answer, then separate what is already certain from what is truly uncertain.
  • Pick the two uncertainties that have the biggest impact and are hardest to predict. Their two ends form the axes, and the four corners are the four scenarios.
  • Scenarios are not forecasts or best/worst cases: each must be plausible and tell a coherent story. Look for moves that work in all four, and signposts that tell you which one is unfolding.

What this does

Builds a small set of plausible, distinct futures — not a single forecast — so the strategy is robust across more than one version of what happens next.

When to use it

Growth through Renewal, under real uncertainty (input-cost shocks, new regulation, a new entrant) where a single forecast would be false precision.

What happens next

Stress-tests the Financial Model's assumptions and Risk Heat Map likelihood ratings.

Golden thread

Builds on ←

    A starting point: it needs no earlier tool.

    Feeds into →

    • financial

    Framework library: Strategy and environment (layer L1), lifecycle stages 3 to 6.

    Use this tool, free

    Sign in to open the worksheet. Your work saves as you type, the AI can draft the parts you have not filled in, and you finish with an analysis and a 30/60/90-day action plan.

    Sign inCreate a free account

    Hand-built by Eccellere and reviewed by Eccellere on 02/11/2026. Guidance, not advice: apply your own judgement.